Type I and Type II Errors

A verdict in a hypothesis test can be wrong in two different ways — and they are not the same mistake. Lay the truth against our decision:

The two correct verdicts are rejecting a false H_0 and failing to reject a true one.

Power: catching a real effect

If \beta is the chance of missing a real effect, then 1 - \beta is the chance of catching it. This is the power of the test:

\text{power} = 1 - \beta = \mathbb{P}(\text{reject } H_0 \mid H_1 \text{ true}).

A powerful test rarely lets a genuine effect through. So a good test wants both \alpha small (few false alarms) and power high (few misses).

The two errors, side by side

The left bell is the sampling distribution under H_0; the right bell is the distribution under H_1 (a real effect shifts the mean across). The vertical line is the decision threshold: we reject H_0 for anything to its right.

The trade-off

The two errors pull against each other. Slide the threshold right to shrink \alpha (fewer false positives) and the \beta slice of the alternative bell grows — more misses, less power. Slide it left and the trade reverses. With fixed sample size you cannot drive both errors to zero at once; choosing \alpha is choosing where on this see-saw to sit. (Collecting more data is what separates the bells and eases the squeeze.)