The Sampling Distribution of the Mean

We already know the sample mean \bar{x} varies — a fresh sample gives a fresh value. So treat \bar{x} as a quantity with a distribution of its own. Imagine repeating the experiment many times: draw a sample of size n, record its mean, and do it again and again. Collecting all those means gives the sampling distribution of the mean.

Centred, but tighter

Two facts shape this distribution. First, it is centred at \mu: averaging doesn't push \bar{x} high or low, so its long-run mean is exactly the population mean,

\mathbb{E}[\bar{x}] = \mu.

Second, it is narrower than the population. A single observation can be extreme, but an average of n of them washes out the extremes — highs and lows cancel. The spread of \bar{x} is

\operatorname{sd}(\bar{x}) = \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}},

which shrinks as n grows. Bigger samples give means that huddle more tightly around \mu.

Watch it tighten

The wide faint curve is the population. The bold curve is the distribution of the sample mean \bar{x}. Both sit over the same centre \mu, but as you raise n the bold curve pulls in tight — its width is \sigma/\sqrt{n}. The mean of a large sample is a far more reliable pointer to \mu than a single value.