Forward and Futures Contracts
A financial derivative
doesn't have to give its holder a choice. The call and the put you already know are
built on optionality — the right, not the obligation, to trade. Strip the optionality away and
you're left with the oldest and simplest derivative of all: a plain
promise to trade at a fixed price, on a fixed future date, no matter what happens to
the market in between.
A wheat farmer in March doesn't know what wheat will fetch in August. An airline doesn't know
what jet fuel will cost next winter. An importer who owes €1,000,000 in ninety days doesn't
know what dollars it will take to buy those euros. Each of them can eliminate that uncertainty
today by agreeing, right now, on the price they'll pay or receive later. That agreement is a
forward contract — or, in its exchange-traded cousin's clothing, a
futures contract.
The contract, in words and in symbols
A forward contract is a bilateral agreement between two parties to buy and
sell an asset at a specified future time T, called
maturity (or delivery), for a price
K agreed today and fixed for the life of the contract. That
fixed price is called the delivery price, or the forward price
when we're talking about the price a brand-new contract would be written at right now. Today's
market price of the underlying asset — what you'd pay to buy it on the spot, for immediate
delivery — is the spot price, S_0.
The two sides have names. The party who agrees to buy the asset at
K is long the forward. The party who agrees to
sell it is short. Unlike an option, there is no walking away: at
maturity, the long must buy and the short must sell, at
K, whatever the spot price
S_T turns out to be. Working out exactly how much each side gains or
loses from that obligation — the contract's payoff — is the whole subject of the next
lesson; here we only need the vocabulary.
A futures contract is the same idea, in different market plumbing: an
agreement to buy or sell at a fixed price at a fixed future date, but
standardized and traded on an organized exchange rather than
negotiated privately. The next two lessons unpack exactly what that plumbing changes; for now,
think of a futures contract as "a forward contract, but exchange-traded."
| Forward | Futures |
| Traded | Over-the-counter (OTC), bilateral | On an organized exchange |
| Terms | Customized — any size, any date, any asset both sides agree to | Standardized contract specs set by the exchange |
| Counterparty | The other party, directly | A clearing house stands between every trade |
| Settlement | Once, at maturity T | Daily — marked to market every trading day |
| Secondary market | Illiquid, hard to exit early | Liquid — closed out with an offsetting trade any time |
The last two rows are the meat of Lessons 3 and 4: how a clearing house changes who you're
really trading with, and what "marked to market" means for the cash in your account. For now,
notice the one thing forwards and futures share that makes them fundamentally different from a
call or a put: an obligation, not a right.
Worked example: hedging jet fuel
A regional airline knows it will need 2{,}000{,}000 gallons of jet
fuel in six months. Today's spot price is S_0 = \$2.60 per gallon.
Worried that fuel prices might spike, the airline's treasury desk calls a bank and agrees to a
six-month forward contract at a delivery price of K = \$2.68 per
gallon. (Why K is a few cents above today's spot price, and
not simply equal to it, is exactly the question Lesson 5's cost-of-carry argument answers —
file it away for now.) The airline is long the forward: it has agreed to
buy fuel at K.
Six months pass. Two scenarios:
-
Fuel spikes to S_T = \$3.10. The airline still
pays only K = \$2.68 per gallon under the forward — a total of
\$2.68 \times 2{,}000{,}000 = \$5{,}360{,}000, instead of
\$3.10 \times 2{,}000{,}000 = \$6{,}200{,}000 at the prevailing
spot price. The forward saved the airline \$840{,}000.
-
Fuel instead falls to S_T = \$2.20. The airline is
still obligated to pay K = \$2.68 — \$0.48
per gallon more than it would have paid on the open market, a loss of
\$960{,}000 relative to spot. An option would have let the airline
walk away and simply buy at the cheaper spot price; a forward doesn't offer that escape hatch.
That asymmetry — bounded loss for an option holder, unbounded loss (in principle) either way
for a forward — is the price of not having paid an option premium up front.
Notice the airline never speculates on fuel prices here — it locks in
\$2.68 and gets exactly that, regardless of which scenario plays out.
That certainty, not a bet on direction, is the point of hedging with a forward.
What's actually fixed, and what isn't
The one idea worth staring at until it's obvious: K is nailed down
the moment the contract is signed and never moves again. The spot price
S(t), by contrast, wanders for the whole life of the contract — up,
down, nobody knows in advance. The chart below sketches one illustrative path the spot
price might wander along between today (t=0) and maturity
(t=6 months), against the flat, fixed line at
K. Drag K and watch the delivery line
slide — the wandering spot path never notices; it's set by the market, not by the contract.
If a forward simply locked in today's spot price, everyone would prefer to be long: buying at
today's price for delivery later, with money not due until later, would be free money — you
could immediately profit by investing the cash you didn't have to pay yet. So no-arbitrage
demands K compensate the short for the time value of money (and
any storage costs, and give back any income the asset throws off in the meantime). That
compensation has an exact formula — the cost of carry — and it's the
centerpiece of Lesson 5. For now, just notice that K \ne S_0 in
general, and the gap between them is not random noise; it's priced by arbitrage.
It's tempting to think of a forward the way you think of an option: pay a premium today,
collect a payoff later. That's wrong. A forward contract costs
\$0 to enter — neither side pays the other anything at inception.
The delivery price K is chosen precisely so that the
contract's value at signing is zero for both sides; nobody would agree to a forward that
favoured their counterparty for free. All of the contract's value (positive for one side,
negative for the other) accrues later, as the spot price moves away from
K. Confusing "the delivery price K"
with "the price you pay to enter the contract" is the single most common beginner's mix-up in
this whole module — keep them separate in your head from the start.