Probability Spaces
A probability measure is nothing more than a
measure
with one extra requirement: the whole space has measure one. Write it
\mathbb{P}, so that
\mathbb{P}(\Omega) = 1. The complete object,
(\Omega, \mathcal{F}, \mathbb{P}),
is a probability space:
\Omega the sample space of outcomes,
\mathcal{F} the σ-algebra of events, and
\mathbb{P} the probability assigned to each event. This
triple is the stage on which every random phenomenon in this course plays out.
Kolmogorov's axioms
Stripped to essentials, a probability measure obeys three axioms — the rest of probability
is built entirely from them:
- Non-negativity: \mathbb{P}(A) \ge 0 for every event A.
- Normalisation: \mathbb{P}(\Omega) = 1.
-
Countable additivity: for pairwise-disjoint
A_1, A_2, \dots,
\mathbb{P}\!\left(\bigcup_{i} A_i\right) = \sum_{i} \mathbb{P}(A_i).
From these alone come the everyday rules: the complement rule
\mathbb{P}(A^{c}) = 1 - \mathbb{P}(A), the fact that
\mathbb{P}(\emptyset) = 0, and the
inclusion–exclusion formula
\mathbb{P}(A \cup B) = \mathbb{P}(A) + \mathbb{P}(B) - \mathbb{P}(A \cap B).
The fair die, end to end
Take \Omega = \{1,2,3,4,5,6\},
\mathcal{F} = 2^{\Omega} the power set, and
\mathbb{P}(A) = |A| / 6 — each outcome equally likely. Pick an
event below; its faces light up and its probability shows as a fraction. Every choice obeys
0 \le \mathbb{P}(A) \le 1.