Filtrations & Information
Probability happens in time. As the clock ticks, outcomes get revealed and we learn more.
A filtration is the mathematical record of what we know by time
t: an increasing family of
σ-algebras
(\mathcal{F}_t)_{t \ge 0} with
\mathcal{F}_s \subseteq \mathcal{F}_t \qquad \text{whenever } s \le t.
The containment is the whole point: information only ever accumulates. Every
event we could resolve by time s we can still resolve later at
t — nothing is forgotten. Bigger
\sigma-algebra, finer questions answerable, more known.
The refining tree
Picture tossing a coin at each time step. At t = 0 you know nothing:
\mathcal{F}_0 = \{\varnothing, \Omega\} is trivial — you cannot
distinguish any outcome from any other. The first toss splits the world in two; the second splits
each half again. Each \mathcal{F}_t is the
\sigma-algebra generated by the partition into these blocks, and the
partitions get strictly finer:
\mathcal{F}_0 \subset \mathcal{F}_1 \subset \mathcal{F}_2 \subset \cdots
Step through the tree and watch the partition refine — each new layer is a larger
\sigma-algebra sitting on top of the last.
Adapted processes
A stochastic process (X_t) is adapted to the filtration
if each X_t is \mathcal{F}_t-measurable —
its value is known by time t. Adaptedness rules out clairvoyance:
you may use only information already revealed, never a peek at the future.
This is the backbone of everything that follows. A
martingale
is an adapted process whose
conditional expectation
of tomorrow, given today's \mathcal{F}_t, is today's value — and the Itô
integral is built so its integrand is adapted, never anticipating the Brownian increment it is paid
against.