Girsanov's Theorem

The equivalent martingale measure was promised but never built. Girsanov's theorem is the construction. It answers a precise question: if I reweight my probabilities by a clever density, what happens to a Brownian motion? The astonishing answer is that changing measure changes the drift, and nothing else. The randomness — the Brownian wiggle — survives untouched; only the tilt of the path shifts.

Concretely, let W be a Brownian motion under \mathbb{P}, fix an adapted process \theta_t, and use as the density the exponential martingale

Z_T = \frac{d\mathbb{Q}}{d\mathbb{P}} = \exp\!\left(-\int_0^T \theta_s\, dW_s - \tfrac{1}{2}\int_0^T \theta_s^2\, ds\right).

Then under the new measure \mathbb{Q} the shifted process

\tilde{W}_t = W_t + \int_0^t \theta_s\, ds

is itself a Brownian motion. The drift \int_0^t \theta_s\,ds that \mathbb{Q} grafts on under \mathbb{P} is exactly the drift it strips off going the other way: under \mathbb{Q}, \tilde{W} is driftless and clean.

The centrepiece: sending the stock risk-neutral, line by line

Watch Girsanov do the one job the whole theory was built for: turn the real-world stock dynamics into the risk-neutral dynamics. Start with geometric Brownian motion under \mathbb{P}, where the stock drifts at its real rate \mu:

dS_t = \mu S_t\, dt + \sigma S_t\, dW_t.

Step 1 — invert the Girsanov shift. Take \theta constant. The relation \tilde{W}_t = W_t + \theta t differentiates to d\tilde{W}_t = dW_t + \theta\,dt, so the \mathbb{P}-Brownian increment is

dW_t = d\tilde{W}_t - \theta\, dt.

Step 2 — substitute into the SDE. Replace every dW_t with d\tilde{W}_t - \theta\,dt:

dS_t = \mu S_t\, dt + \sigma S_t\,\big(d\tilde{W}_t - \theta\, dt\big).

Step 3 — expand and collect the dt terms. Multiply out the bracket and gather the two drift pieces:

dS_t = \mu S_t\, dt - \sigma\theta S_t\, dt + \sigma S_t\, d\tilde{W}_t = (\mu - \sigma\theta)\,S_t\, dt + \sigma S_t\, d\tilde{W}_t.

The diffusion coefficient \sigma S_t is unchanged — only the drift moved, exactly as Girsanov advertised. The new drift is a knob we can turn by our choice of \theta.

Step 4 — choose \theta to hit the riskless rate. We want the stock to drift at r under \mathbb{Q}, so demand \mu - \sigma\theta = r and solve for \theta:

\theta = \frac{\mu - r}{\sigma}.

This special \theta is the market price of risk — the excess return \mu - r per unit of volatility \sigma.

Step 5 — verify the drift collapses to r. Substitute \theta = (\mu - r)/\sigma back into the drift coefficient and watch the \sigma cancel:

\mu - \sigma\theta = \mu - \sigma\cdot\frac{\mu - r}{\sigma} = \mu - (\mu - r) = r.

Step 6 — read off the risk-neutral dynamics. The drift is now exactly the riskless rate:

\boxed{\,dS_t = r S_t\, dt + \sigma S_t\, d\tilde{W}_t.\,}

Under \mathbb{Q} the stock earns r on average — the real-world premium \mu has been reweighted clean away — and \tilde{W} is the new Brownian motion. The discounted price \tilde{S}_t = e^{-rt}S_t is then a \mathbb{Q}-martingale, so \mathbb{Q} is the equivalent martingale measure we were missing. Black–Scholes pricing is now a matter of computing one expectation under \mathbb{Q}.

Let W be a \mathbb{P}-Brownian motion and \theta_t an adapted process (with \int_0^T \theta_s^2\,ds < \infty). Then:

The quantity \theta = (\mu - r)/\sigma is the market price of risk (or Sharpe ratio): how much extra expected return the market pays for each extra unit of volatility carried. Girsanov reweights probability until that price is exactly zero — under \mathbb{Q} risk is not compensated, which is why everything earns the same r.

One technical hazard: the density Z_T is only a local martingale in general, and could secretly lose mass (\mathbb{E}[Z_T] < 1), which would break the change of measure. Novikov's condition rules this out — if

\mathbb{E}_{\mathbb{P}}\!\left[\exp\!\left(\tfrac12\int_0^T \theta_s^2\, ds\right)\right] < \infty,

then Z_T is a genuine martingale with \mathbb{E}[Z_T] = 1 and Girsanov goes through. For constant \theta the integral is just \tfrac12\theta^2 T, finite always — so the textbook Black–Scholes case is safe.

Finally, recognise the density itself. With X_t = -\int_0^t \theta_s\,dW_s, its quadratic variation is \langle X\rangle_t = \int_0^t \theta_s^2\,ds, and Z_t = \exp\!\big(X_t - \tfrac12\langle X\rangle_t\big) is precisely the stochastic exponential of -\int\theta\,dW — the very exponential martingale \exp(\sigma W_t - \tfrac12\sigma^2 t) we built with Itô's lemma, now with the integrand -\theta in the role of \sigma. The -\tfrac12\int\theta^2 ds in the exponent is the same drift compensator, doing the same job: keeping the mean pinned at 1 so that Z_T is a legitimate density.

One outcome, two drifts

Here is Girsanov made visible. A single Brownian outcome \omega drives both curves: the \mathbb{P} stock climbing at its real drift \mu, and the \mathbb{Q} stock climbing at the riskless r. They share every wiggle — only the average tilt differs, the difference being \sigma\theta. Drag \theta to retune the market price of risk and watch the \mathbb{Q} path's drift slide; Refresh for a fresh \omega.